Levels / Orders of Thinking

When you're in a strategic situation or a game, there are, what I call, Levels of thinking or Orders of thinking.

In a strategic situation, you must anticipate what your opponent would do and act accordingly. Your opponent will also anticipate your moves and act accordingly. Which action is the winning move depends on which order you and your opponent are thinking on. Interestingly, when the action can have only two values, it alternates every level.

That must have made no sense, so here's an example:

Suppose you have done something wrong, lets say you've abetted someone in a crime, and a detective is hired to look into the matter.The detective is gonna talk face to face with a bunch of people rounded up for interrogation.

Its your turn. He shows you a photo of the thug whom you assisted and asks sternly, "Recognize this fellow?".
*Now, if you show fear or guilt on your face or by way of body language like gulping down your throat, the detective is gonna corner you even if you answer "No". And you lose!
That is Level 0 thinking - Ground level thinking or obviousness or naiveness / artless / simpleton.
Level 0 for you coz, you did the obvious/naive move: showing the guilt by gulping down.
Level 0 for the detective coz also took the obvious decision as according to him, you were clearly guilty.
The detective wins coz thats what was supposed to happen - he was the Expected winner. This was the simplest case.

Now, instead, suppose you act smart. You realize if you show any signs of fear or guilt while lying, you're done for. You anticipate what the detective is gonna look for.
So when asked about the photo, you calmly deceive the detective by saying "No" just like other innocent people.
That is Level 1 thinking on your part.
The detective was still on Level 0.
So, you won.

However the detective may also be artful.
Lets assume that he has a presumption that all suspects think on Level 1. So even he thinks on Level 1. Hence if you do suppress your gulping or body language, he CATCHES you. He wins.
If you DONT suppress your gulp, you DONT get caught! Here's where it starts alternating.
If you understand all this and you purposefully decide not to suppress the gulp, it means you are thinking on Level 2. It means you completely anticipated your opponent and stayed one step ahead of him.
If you had not anticipated your opponent AT ALL i.e. if you had been naive i.e. if you had been on Level 0, even then you would have won.
However if you had anticipated your opponent but not completely i.e. if you had been on level 1, you would lose! Thats like executing a half baked plan... no plan is better than a half baked plan.

Now, lets take this a level higher - the detective is one smartass like Michael Scofield (from Prison Break). He understands all of what is written above! He believes you are also a smartypants and so you are not gonna be on level 1, let alone level 0. He has reason to believe that you are gonna be thinking on Level 2. You don't know this coz you have not anticipated that the detective is one hell of a smartass; smart, but not so smart; so you go with Level 2 (half-bakedness). Hence, you DO GULP expecting to win the battle, but unfortunately for you, the detective is also on Level 2. He sees through all your smartness and He wins!
An amusing point to note here:
If the detective was on Level 0 i.e. a simpleton/naive, say a teletubbie as a detective (not worthy of being a detective), even then, he would have won!

What we can conclude in numbers here is:

Of the two entities competing, one of them is gonna be an Expected Winner at ground level - In this case the detective.
1) When both the entities are on the same level, the Expected winner wins. Or to generalize, when there is a difference of 2n between their levels, the Expected wins.
2) When there is a difference of (2n+1) between their levels, the Expected loser Wins.

So its like an alternating ladder:



Also, when your action/move can have more than 2 values, I think the representation might look like a helix:




Where do you encounter such convoluted thinking?

In real life, usually, only level 0 and level 1 are common. Thinking on Level 2 by just one party is quite rare. Thinking on Level 2 by BOTH the parties is hardly ever encountered in real life, atleast I have not observed it yet. Level 3 and beyond are practically non-existent IRL.

In fiction, esp crime drama, psychological thrillers Level 1 and Level 2 by one party is somewhat common. Level 2 thinking by BOTH the parties is seen once in a blue when the producer/writer wants to shock you. And Level 3 thinking by one party would be very rare. I think Death Note exhibits Level 3 thinking at some point... not sure, I'll have to watch it again.

Where do you use this?

Social Engineering, deception, investigation, day-to-day life decision making, recognizing people, Sports, Games.

My example considered an "intellectual battle" between two characters. However, this concept of levels of thinking is evident in other cases also whenever you would anticipate something. *Cant think of an example right now; will update as soon as i find one*

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Now that you understand what levels of thinking means, suggest me some movies, serials, animes, books which features "High Level thinking". The universally known genres "Psychological Thriller" or "Mindfck" come close to describing the same quality but not quite exact.

Here's my list:

Animes:
1) Death Note
2) Code Geass ... I haven't seen it yet but from the descriptions by its fans that I've read it does seem to be like "high level thinking" stuff.

Serials:
1) Prison Break

Movies and Books, dont know. All of the ones I know are Level 1.

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"Levels of Thinking" was my way of putting up this concept that we unconsciously follow. Do you have a similar framework? Upto what Level have you ever thought?

Leave your comments.

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